ED3N- on the Brink of Extinction Read online

  Family matters:

  Too early to tell how this will affect the dynamics of the family. Obviously, we’re all nervous about the virus and how long we’ll need to remain isolated but we’re in a good state of mind considering the circumstances.

  Bryce still isn’t speaking but he screamed a new word when he woke from his nightmare this morning. ‘Arc’. Or maybe it was ‘Ark’. Over and over again. Not even the magic of the dogs was enough to break the spell, not until Sara held him. We tried asking him what it meant but he just stared blankly into space and went back to sleep.

  Comments from around the world:

  Sometimes I find it difficult to read blog comments if it’s a page with daily entries. Some of the comments become out of context as the subject matter moves on while the replies are coming in several weeks or months later. So in an attempt to make this blog easier to read over the long haul, I’ve decided to create this section, Comments from around the world, to summarize your reactions to daily content.

  Kate from Boise, my sister-in-law, had this to say. “Hey bro, nice start to the blog. We like the concept of a Digital Trading Post! You can use the title if you want. I won’t fight you for trademark violations. ☺ It could become the ‘Craigslist’ of the apocalypse. You’ll be in a good position of power with that crafty wife of yours. She could trade knitted hats, organic soaps, and farm-fresh eggs for useful things like toilet paper! Notice I said ‘she’ could trade? She’s probably doing all the hard work while you’re still nerding away on the computer. What are you going to trade? Statistics and graphs of supplies? Seriously though, you’re providing good information, and this forum is a great way for all of us to stay connected. BTW comrade, your brother wanted me to pass along that your communist subversive thoughts about the government possibly not following through on supply drops and vaccinations have made the family in Boise a bit nervous. As you know, your grandma, Kurt and I are staying with your parents. But if this quarantine lasts longer than 3 months, I don’t know how long we’d last in the cul-de-sac. We’re discussing/arguing heading to your grandma’s place in Montana or coming to you guys in Portland. What do you think?”

  So we now have proof this is a real-life blog. That single comment transformed this site from an electronic diary to an official blog! Right? Not buying it? Well, it’s a start.

  For the rest of you Tabor Mountain Blog readers, some clarification is in order. My grandmother lives in Montana, and the family decided to bring her to Boise to make sure she takes her meds, has a better chance of getting supply drops, and just being with the family during this scary time. One of my uncles decided to stay in Montana with the horses and hunting dogs to make sure no one tries to take over the property. During the preparation stage, we discussed if it would be wise for us to put all of our eggs in one basket by gathering in one location or maintain two or three different properties. In the end, we decided it would be best to stay separated initially for living space reasons (before I knew the Dodson’s were leaving, damn it) and also to gauge which area would be more livable in the long run. There are lots of hunting and fishing options in Boise, as well as a smaller population base. But we also figured the government would focus on getting the larger population areas back in order the soonest. So we’ve hedged our bets. We have two homes, and one farmhouse in Montana, at our disposal depending on how things play out.

  Kate mentioned vaccinations and commented about possibly not having the government follow through on the delivery. Those were her words and not mine comrades! But she brings up a good point. We know some people have already received the shots. The President showed off his bracelet. The Dodson’s got theirs out of turn (but I’m not blaming them I might have done the same. But not Sara, my wife. More on this later). I also know several friends and co-workers that got the seasonal flu shot. Theoretically, we have enough vaccinations for one-third of the population already. Will those with bracelets still hunker down or will they drive to work and to stores for supplies?

  So I ask you this faithful reader, which hopefully number more than one. Have you received the vaccination already? Have you tried driving around since the quarantine went into effect? What is it like out there? Are stores open? Any special instructions provided during the vaccination process? We want to know. Please leave a comment below!

  Thoughts on vaccinations:

  I mentioned my wife, Sara, in regards to vaccines. At the moment we’re a house divided. Her stance on vaccinations, antibiotics, and a number of other drugs is that at best they weaken our immune systems. At their worst, they may be the cause of autism, create antibiotic-resistant strains of killer bacteria, and in some rare cases directly lead to death. She has repeatedly put her foot down and refuses to allow our children to take antibiotics for usual ailments like nasal and ear infections. She’s even more adamant when it comes to getting flu shots. She reasons our bodies have several built-in mechanisms to deal with viruses such as increasing the temperature via fever to burn out the buggers and developing antibodies so we never get sick from the same virus twice. In her words, we make each virus and bacteria stronger every time we cheat by taking medication instead of letting our immune system do its job. She has a pretty strong case, and I’ve come to agree with her on seemingly run of the mill illnesses. We are healthy so I have no problem letting common viruses run their course.

  BUT, I also look at medical miracles, such as the invention of antibiotics. In the 1940s infections were the leading cause of death. Yes, I know we’ve been irresponsible by prescribing them for sniffles and sneezes and feeding them to cattle. But they have also saved many lives during emergencies. Speaking of emergencies, aren’t we currently in a State of Emergency? And isn’t it possible that a flu vaccine may have been all it would take to save the hundreds of thousands that have perished at the hands of the Blue Flu? See our dilemma? Sara says remain isolated and healthy until the virus burns itself out. I’m saying this approach only lasts until someone with the virus bursts our protective bubble by climbing a fence and knocking on our door asking for a little food.

  I understand why the government has made the vaccinations mandatory. They need to do something! They need to appear to be in control and offer a sense of protection and hope. Anything to help reduce the absolute panic running through the general public's mind. Squelch the constant reporting of worst-case scenarios and curtail the political lambasting in DC for not safeguarding the public from the Blue Flu. If my projections are correct, more than four hundred thousand will have died by the end of July in the US alone. In just a few months this has become our country's greatest loss of life due to illness and eclipsed the total number of US casualties during World War 2. Second only to the 620 thousand casualties of the Civil War. On some websites, I’ve read estimates that the Blue Flu will claim ten million lives. Others hold up their Bibles and shout about End Times and two-thirds of the earth's population being doomed. Pick a number, any number. They are all huge when you’re talking about human lives.

  Even after the quarantine is lifted, what happens without vaccination proof? I really doubt religious exemptions are going to be a valid defense in this case. No sense taking risks at this point. Until our number is called, I agree with laying low to limit exposure. But when our number IS called we are getting the shots.

  Who do you agree with? Are you Pro or Anti vaccinations? We want to know. Stay safe and leave your comments below.

  Chapter 10

  Ruth

  July 15, 2021

  From: [email protected] (CDC/OOD/PDD/ATSDR)

  To: [email protected] (CDC/NCIRD)

  Subject: 2021 Blue Flu Vaccine Status

  David,

  I’ve been ordered by Vice President Shepard and CDC Director Thompson to participate in contingency planning efforts in response to the spread of the Blue virus pandemic. While I find the timing strange with the nationwide quarantine now in effect, 100 million vaccines to distribute, and 200 million more to manufacture it is diffic
ult to argue with the White House. Effective immediately, I’m appointing you as acting Principal Deputy Director at the CDC. Your security clearance level has been authorized for direct communications with the Vice President and the Director-General of WHO. Your biosafety clearance has also been raised to BSL-4 so you now have full access to all the laboratories and sites around the globe. I’ll leave it to your discretion to select a backfill for your post as Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

  I’ll send out a memo to the rest of the staff alerting them to the changes and simply stating that I am now acting in an advisory role to the White House Staff. Contingency planning efforts are on a need to know basis so please treat this information as Top Secret Confidential.

  Even though the position of Principal Deputy Director is now in your capable hands, I’m reluctant to give up my post at the CDC. As you know I’ve always been driven to focus on helping people through effective and efficient public service actions rather than getting drawn into the political games played between drug companies and many people in our organization. That’s why I’ve never even considered a move into the Director’s position. I believe you and I share this devoted sense of idealism, and that’s why we’ve always been such a great team. I’m confident that through your guidance, and in partnership with the World Health Organization, the CDC will find the cure and eradicate this disease. I’m also hopeful I’ll be able to remotely collaborate with you in these efforts but don’t yet know what my new role will entail.

  My flight is about to take off so I’ll send the notes from my lab journal and recommendations for next steps upon arrival but want to get this note out to you before I lose internet service. Please keep me apprised of both progress and setbacks. I’m always available via text if something urgent comes up.

  I have one final request as I pass the proverbial baton to you. Please keep stopblue.gov up to date. I strongly believe the simple act of transparently sharing information with the citizens of the US, and the world will help us get through this crisis. Let’s not feed people’s fears by keeping them in the dark. Share the truth.

  Stay safe my friend,

  Dr. Ruth Atkins

  Former Principal Deputy Director of CDC / ATDSR

  <…sending…>

  Ruth was comfortably buckled into first-class seating onboard one of the CDC’s three private jets located in Atlanta. She hadn’t been fully truthful to David in her email. Of course, she’d have internet connection for the duration of the flight. All CDC jets were connected via satellite to ensure they could maintain lines of communication during emergencies. But at the moment she would rather have him believe she was flying on a commercial airline. He’d have plenty of questions to which she had no answers. Ruth was even in the dark regarding her destination other than it was on the west coast. She was looking forward to several hours of uninterrupted time to arrange her journal entries and speculate on what the Vice President could possibly have in store for her.

  15 July 2021 – Ruth Atkin’s Journal Entry

  Day 12 of the nationwide quarantine due to the Blue flu pandemic. VP Shepard ordered the private CDC jet to deliver me from Atlanta to an undisclosed military base in California. I sent a note to David Jones telling him of my orders and promoting him into the role of Principal Deputy Director. David is trustworthy and discrete so he will keep the contingency planning efforts confidential and tell our staff I’m on loan to the White House in an advisory capacity. I am confident in his capabilities to lead the investigative efforts to find the antibodies that will lead to a vaccine against the blue strain. But I’m not ready to vacate my post. I don’t have a political bone in my body and am not looking forward to brainstorming with a bunch of thinktank and military types. Don’t have the patience for it. A lot of people are going to die while the bureaucrat's debate policy, funding, and public opinion. I’m known for knocking down barriers and making difficult decisions during the heat of battle. Catastrophes of this magnitude rock you to the core and elicit fight or flight mechanisms even in the most battle-hardened veterans. Over the years I’ve come to the realization I’m at my best when situations seem dire, and I always chose to run headlong into the fray rather than flee. Leading investigation during Anthrax attacks and supporting foreign agencies during SARS and Ebola outbreaks is when I feel most valuable and alive. I’m a virus hunter and damn good at it. Success in these areas of my career is probably the same reasons my personal life is such a failure and I’m still single at 56. I’ve become obsessed with sacrificing what could have been my ‘normal’ adult existence to save others so they can live normal, predictable, fulfilled lives. This is meaningful and gives me purpose in life. So why the hell am I being pulled away from what I’m good at during a time when the world needs my services the most?

  Removing myself from my old position, taking a deep figurative breath, and looking at the situation objectively, I come to one conclusion. We’re in unchartered waters here. I usually don’t have the luxury of thinking too far ahead as a virus hunter. Other CDC team members busy themselves with projections and extrapolations of vector paths, morbidity rates, and the number of infected. My role is to clinically assess the situation like an ER surgeon dealing with a car crash victim. Which of this person’s injuries is most critical and likely to kill them within minutes? Stabilize that situation and move on to the next. Which injury would lead to death within hours instead of days? Address it and move on to the next. One methodical step after the other until the patient’s body can take over and begin to heal itself.

  Dealing with virus outbreaks isn’t much different, but you work from the macroscopic symptoms visible from outside of the body down to the cellular level and eventually down to the DNA building blocks. This is real science and once you solve the equation, antibodies and antigens become known and predictable variables to which you can find a cure that works in harmony with the body. They are elegant solutions that balance good versus evil at a microscopic level. However, actions like quarantines are akin to using tourniquets. They are only used during an extreme emergency to stop the bleeding when not doing so would result in immediate death. But they don’t address the underlying situation. They only postpone the inevitable. And it is precisely this triage type of approach that I’m struggling with. I feel guilty leaving David to deal with a critical situation to which we only have a tourniquet, the quarantine. Guilty because it was my recommendations that ultimately led to the executive order to quarantine our nation. I should have been tasked with finding the mechanism responsible for the degeneration of lung tissue, then finding the antigen that caused the immune response and finally discovering the vehicle by which the virus delivered this antigen to each person. Leaders in Washington were under intense scrutiny by the press and the responsibility of their positions to ensure public safety while trying to simultaneously provide guidance to the global community. So I wasn’t asked to do my job. Instead, I was painted into a corner. I was asked to review data from WHO, Homeland Security, the USDA, as well as our own finding at CDC, and project where this disease was headed and estimate the time to find cures based on historic pandemics and computational simulations. I postulated that within three months the President would be addressing the nation about a very short time table to our eventual extinction.

  I used Spanish Influenza as a baseline. Combining the population growth since 1918 (2 billion to 7 billion) with increased rates of local and international travel could result in six times as many fatalities. Roughly 120 to 600 million. But only 1/3 of those infected during the Spanish Flu died. In comparison, the Blue strain is killing 100% of those infected. Up to 2 billion people could succumb to the virus if we never found a vaccine and allowed our immune systems to fend for themselves. I drafted a final findings report but left out the death tolls, and instead tried to focus on facts and possible actions.

  The new strain of human H1N1 influenza virus, aptly dubbed Blue Flu by the press, has gone basically unchecked.
All our planning and best intentions to quarantine, treat and eradicate the virus have failed.

  It started slowly. Too slowly. Then exploded. No pattern to the random spread of infections. The labs came back and confirmed it's definitely H1N1 based. We don't know how it is spreading. Based on the current randomness of cases and global distribution, either the virus lies dormant for several months or there really is no connection between the cases of infections.

  What we know:

  Stage 1 symptoms: Similar to severe flu strains. Sudden onset of headache, severe muscle, and joint pain, dry cough, runny nose, dizziness, labored breathing, flushed skin, sneezing and fever. Hemorrhaging of the mucous membranes has also been observed.

  Stage 2 symptoms: Rapid pulmonary and respiratory system hemorrhaging and failure. Victims expire from extreme blood loss in less than 48 hours. The rapid blood loss causes facial cyanosis; blue lips, cheeks, nose, and ears.

  All victims test positive for H1N1. Antibodies are present in high quantities but surprisingly haven’t been able to slow the virus. We now know why. Molecular tests revealed H5N1 is the real killer and has receptors for H1N1. Once infected with both

  Unexpectedly, human to human transmission rates are low even though case-fatality rates are high. Some family members, co-workers, and classmates have become infected while others have not.